I know it must sound like I'm being stubborn, but I sincerely believe that given my time with an axe, put in to an arena wielding a claymore, versus someone who'd never swung an axe also wielding a claymore, you'd see no appreciable difference (Save, perhaps, for a slight advantage in strength). And I do respect your opinion, I just believe differently.
I can see where you're coming from. And realistically, maybe you're right. But ultimately, for Skyrim, it'll come down to gameplay and the "feel" of it. Perhaps Bethesda will be more forthcoming with their reasons for the changes in the coming months.
I see a trend of games (Not just Elder Scrolls, but the industry as a whole) towards simplicity, and I hate it. So when I see my most beloved franchise possibly wandering in that direction, I panic.
Simplifying is not always a bad thing. And depending on how you look at it, this may not even be a change for simplification. Like in Morrowind and Oblivion, levelling certain skills never had a disadvantage. It got you stronger in the skills you levelled, while still not preventing you from using other skills. With the skill+perk system, while the skills work the same way (for the most part; levelling slows drastically after 50), you'll only have limitted access to perks.. about 50 to 75 out of nearly 300 per character. This means the perks you select are important, and the power is in the perks which makes your character's development differ depending on the skills and perks you focus on. You have more options in how to uniquely develop your character without all paths leading to the same uber-god character.
In theory, anyway.
Oh, and of course, and you're right in listing off speech craft as the worst culprit. However, it does beg the question if that was an issue of speech craft, or rather the method of using it (That little 'mood wheel'). Speech craft in Morrowind felt fine, and seemed to gain usefulness as quickly as the other skills did. As for Athletics, again, I think it was more an issue of implementation rather than a fault of the skill itself. A sprint function, married to a nerfing of overall speed would've made the skill far more tolerable when peaked out.
The implementation in Oblivion was pretty bad, yeah. Morrowind's wasn't that bad, though it works on the random-failure principle that Bethesda seems to be getting away from (which I personally am glad for; failure is fine, but random failure gets on my nerves). Though I think the core problem was that there's too little change level-to-level, which made levelling in it not exciting. If combined with Mercantile, you have a little more cause for excitement.. you can haggle for better deals with some people. Improving your persuasive abilities over several levels wouldn't be so ho-hum since you're still getting benefits. But in the end, we'll have to wait and see how it'll play out.. we don't know what the relavent perks will be like or if Speechcraft+Mercantile are actually combined (it's just a likely guess given how similar they conceptually are).
Ditto for Athletics. We don't actually know for sure that it's gone.. it's just very likely that it's been merged with Acrobatics since Todd mentioned how silly it was to level in Acrobatics. Plus, it'll be using perks to help make it a bit more dynamic, in place of its always-on status as in Ob.
And I must say, while I normally crave intellectual/complex components, I don't mind the loss of classes (And with the, the loss of minor and major skills). By the end of the game, one's class was completely irrelevent anyways.
IMO, it was really just a place for exploitation, when combined with racial and birthsign bonuses. If Attributes are really removed, then the race (and possible birthsign) boosts will make the class boosts mostly redundant and/or overpowering anyway. I really hope that we'll start with much lower skill levels overall -- the previous methods felt rather meta-gamey, trying to boost your important skills/attributes as much as possible, or boost them all evenly, and not having a real advantage for role-play (you can still role-play as a battlemage born under the sign of the mage, for instance, even if you don't get the skill boosts from it; you're level 1,
earn those skills, and if you don't use the skills of a battlemage, then maybe you're not really one).