The discussion from the first thread regarding realpolitik in Tamriel can continue here.
Here is the original thread:
http://www.gamesas.com/topic/1471185-tamriel-realpolitik-and-the-skyrim-civil-war/
This is the OP from the first thread.
Note: Realpolitik does not mean allowing for deus ex machina or any other lazy writing technique on Bethesda's part. Focus your anolysis with the situation "on the ground" as it is based on either side winning the Civil War and what that would mean for the other provinces (from the prior poll).
Use your knowledge of "lore" and what you see in game and apply realpolitik to each province.
You may wish to look at one province at a time and talk it out.