Doesn't really refute that technology could advance in Skyrim.
Sorry to question, but did you read the whole thread? The summary of varied points is as follows, as best I can recall:
1) Dwemer didn't create technology, they created Myth wrapped in the appearance of technology. Their treatises which might be learned from were metaphysical treatises, not engineering manuals (at least, not engineering in the pyhsical science sense). Dwemer are not where to look in terms of technological advancement.
2) Magic is the massively-instated tradition for advancing one's capability or ease. Any problems that might need to be solved have a magical or divine solution. And the extreme-to-the-point-of-almost-totality portion of the population will recognize magic as the natural progression towards solving automated or higher-order tasks. Want to advance yourself beyond your current limitations? Go talk to the local mages. Buy a scroll. Or a potion. Or join the guild. Or go to Arataeum. Or talk to the church/temple. Etc, etc. It's as firmly rooted an idea as saying IRL that giving an account of the nature of something implies understanding something, and that furthering oneself is possible by learning to understand one's surroundings. Magic, in TES, can alternately be contrived as that giving an account of that something, seeing as how Nirn itself is just a giant ball of creatia.
3) There have been over 6500 years before the Oblivion and the current time period, which held periods containing far richer conditions for the production of weapons: the inaccessibility of magic, the drive of necessity, the solidification of stable empires, the turmoil and war of other empires, etc, etc. And in all honesty, despite wavering political landscapes and old conceptual organizations with new names, there is little that has drastically changed that one might point to as the catalyst for why
now is a wondrous time for tech to spring out of the ground. If there was ever a time for Merv the Metallurgist to make steamworks and logic gates, etc, it would be in those times that the Mages Guild never existed and something vastly needed to be done.
The absence of anything noteworthy, from any and everyone that ever lived, from any and every culture, from any and every time period, as well as the absence of (again) any definitive catalyst speaks volumes.
3) While it is certainly possible to construe scenarios in which tech is invented, all of these scenarios contain implausible rings to them; they're virtually always chains of insanely optimistic happenstance causes that prompt "inclusion-dictates-the-explanation" versus the always-better "explanation-dictates-the-inclusion." In other words, the inventor(s) of guns in a hypothetical scenario always tend to come off like a cluster[censored] of http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/MartyStu who can do anything they want despite any insurmountable odds against and with little to no justifiable work to overcome those insurmountable odds.
4) While the Aedra, being the good parents they are, don't often mess around with Tamriel, the Daedra certainly do. And you would think that, were technology as we're discussing conceptually possible in Nirn, that the Princes whose spheres are relevant to the tech in question would...
A: Have invented such tech, and...
B: Have given it over time to mortals, so to further their games in the mortal sphere, or...
C: Have nudged mortals into making it themselves through Daedric influence.
I mean, just as an example, Mehrunes Dagon is just custom-fit to have guns or explosives or any possible warfare-tech imaginable at his disposal. His spheres are Destruction, Revolution, Energy, Change, and Ambition; there's a
lot of technical advancements that fit flawlessly within those bounds. And yet Mehrunes Dagon remains pragmatically undefined when it comes to said technology. Another example would be Herma Mora, whose knowledge would also certainly encompass the limits of possibility within the very conceptual nature of the world. Yet no mention of any tech for Mora's followers, ever.
5) And speaking of the Aedra, when they arrive on their creation and go to war with each other, Gods and creators as they are, notice how they, being creators, don't use technical advancements against each other or for each other. They use nothing more than what's already been presented in the world as it is: swords, bows, etc, and insane magic. Now why exactly would that be?
So I guess that, in the light of the immensely summarized points above, tech advancement is still possible, but by the same order of magnitude of possible that pink gerbils will explode out of White-Gold tower, feast on the flesh of the living, and then poop out white lilies. Can I give you a definitive argument for why it's never going to happen it TES? No. But should I still consider it possible in any context of plausibility? Not really.
I get that you're on the same end-result page in terms of what you actually want in the game, and that you're only arguing for the theoretical, but there's been 3 to 4 years-worth of tech debates in TES General. Virtually anything that can be said in defense of it has been addressed and objected to, somewhere down the line. Doesn't help that virtually all those threads are culled. <_<