Text buffer overflow. if/when it happens may depend on mods size, order, content, so there is no simple rule and it may seem random.
I'm not technical enough to understand the text buffer overflow, but after fiddling with a work-around, I definitely learned that it seems quite random.
Usually bigger/changing object properties mods need more merges, so are best candidates to fill the (read/write/both?) TESTool text buffer faster.
Curiously, there really are no object conflicts from the Julan mod and the LGNPC mod mentioned below adds less than ten such conflicts. Another mod about the same size as the Julan mod, Piratelord's Trade Enhancements adds a TON of conflicts but seems to have minimal weight in contributing to the crash. (Well, compared to these other mods that single-handedly stop the crash when removed, anyway.)
For curiosity sake, try keeping Julan and remove another couple of big mods of similar size and see what happens.
[[EDIT]clarification
I did as you suggested with all other mods of similar size or more (about 10 total or so) by themselves and TESTool continued to crash, except for two, LGNPC Pax Redoran and the Morrowind Patch.
EDIT: Experimented further with the LGNPC mods and it only takes deselecting one or two of these mods to stop the crash. Could it be that dialogue intensive mods such as these and the Julan mod contribute heavily to the crash, if not the heaviest contributors?