Ok, I think I have it working. So here's what I did
1. I added the paper to my inventory since the ref wouldn't get enabled.
2. I used the two setstage commands of your previous post
3. I dropped the paper from my inventory
4. I had the quest popup.
5. I went to
Spoiler Skingrad and into the inn. After a few steps my character was stopped and I saw a character walk past me. I had a new quest update saying that it might have been Calindil. I spoke to the tender and asked about the man who just left, then about the mage. I went to his room and found the body. I first had a quest update when I approach the body. I had another update when I read the torn piece of paper beneath the table. Just after I left the inn (as suggested in another quest update) I had a new quest update pop-up saying that I should visit Calindil's place.
That's where I am so far.
Does it seem that something's screwed up?
edit: spelling...