Somewhat.
Currently, we've recognized that the oil WILL run dry, and are working on new power production methods once they start drying up. That cancels out the Resource Wars happening IRL, unless all those new power production methods fall flat on their face all of a sudden. Which is unlikely from what we've seen so far.
It should also be mentioned that most nations aren't as hardlined as they were in Fallout; towards the end of the Cold War, the US and Russia actually were limited trading partners. I can't see that happening with what we know of Pre-War politics in Fallout. And let's not get started with trade between the US and China...
IF it were to happen, it would require a new cold war to start up. Once we're out of this downturn, who knows? It's unlikely to happen, though. It's more likely that if WW3 was to start, it would start with the Middle East completely collapsing into warfare with each other.