» Mon May 16, 2011 7:12 am
Phew, most effort I've done on something in a while.
Alright, let's use Morrowind's cycles, because that actually theoretically lets us get all of the Khajiit's forms. Daggerfall wouldn't let us have a Full/New combination and Oblivion's moons would make nothing but Senche, Cathay-Raht, Pahmar, and Dagi-Raht. Assuming that both moons spend the same percentage of their time waxing and waning that the RL moon does, we can figure out rates.
Ok, going off of Huleed's numbers, I drafted a quick dirty http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s221/silverhawk100/MoonChart.png?t=1303184732.* For anyone interested in the gritty numbers, I figured 2 days for a New Moon, 8 for a Masser Waxing or Masser Waning, 6 days for a Masser Full, Secundas Waxing, and Secundas Waning, and 4 days for a Secundas full.
Now there are a few interesting things that pop out just from this. First, Secundas has a blue moon (2 full moons in a month) every other month and Masser has one every 4 months. Compare this to real life blue moons which occur once every other year or so. Second, there seem to be weeks where the Khajiit type (moon phase) changes every other day and then periods where you can be pretty assured one way or another which it's going to be. Third, on this 30 day calender, Masser matches a pattern that repeats every 4 months while Secundus matches a pattern that repeats every 3 months and they meet (dual new moons) every 3 Masser moons (72 days). The patterns, of course, only meet every year on the 1st of Morning Star.
Next, I then replaced the moon phases for their corresponding Khajiit forms and color coded everything for easy reading. http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s221/silverhawk100/KhajiitBirthCalender.png?t=1303185804 (sorry about the bad quality, also it's not very color-blind friendly).
What immediately popped up was that under Morrowind's moon cycles, it is impossible to get an Ohmes Khajiit (Masser New, Secundas Full)! Oops. Other things of note:
1. the -raht forms are generally more common than the base
2. for knowing next to nothing about the Tojay-raht, Alfiq-raht and Dagi-raht, they are surprisingly common. Far more than Suthay-raht.
3. If you transpose this to a Gregorian-like calender, it is easily conceivable that depending on the year, you can get any Khajiit type under a birthsign.
4. If I were a Khajiit, I'd be a Tojay-raht.
After further number anolysis, here are a few interesting statistics from this:
-If you are born Khajiit, chances are likely you'll be some version of Cathay or Alfiq. Your next likeliest forms are pretty equally Senche, Tojay, Dagi, then Pahmar, then Suthay, then Ohmes.
-While most forms have either 40 or 10 days out of the year, and a few garner 30, Senche is the only form to have 20 days of time.
-Suthay-raht is the only -raht form equally as likely as its basic counterpart.The other -raht forms are significantly more likely than their basic counterpart.
It's a pity we will never have a census of the forms of Khajiit because then we could tell if the Lattice favors some forms over others and then speculate why.
* Note, to make the maths easier and have this calender apply universally, I rounded down to 30 days a month. If you're tracking the cycle by years, just bump everything by 5 days for each new year. Period is 73 years to Day 1 Month 1 New Moon on both.
** Note for anyone else fascinated by TES Numerology: While 24 is less entangled in numerology (best case mathematical permutation being 4*3*2*1, but 12 isn't as common a number as you'd think it would be for containing the two most important TES numbers), 18 days for Secundas' cycle is twice 9. One wonders if Secundas is somehow entangled with the Divines.
*** If you would like the original document I was puttering around with, message me and I'll email it. I can't easily find a place that'll host documents.