I'm sure plenty of people have ideas; I'm not too sure any can be proven.
In Morrowind, there was an actual person called the Night Mother; from what I've heard about Oblivion, she's basically a chick that talks to you through the Lucky Lady (right?) statue. There may be a majority that say it could be Mephala, and considering her profession, it has a decent basis.
But alas, as far as I know, we can't really say.