Following the near-defeat of the Empire and the signing of the White-Gold Concordat, and the secession of Hammerfell, the Empire is most likely on the brink of collapse. The Imperial Army's forces are positioned along the border with the Aldmeri Dominion, weakening the Empire's pressence in Skyrim - the backbone of the Empire, and High Rock - the ever-divided farthest point of the Empire. Now, with the possible end of the Mede dynasty and the rise of anti-Imperial separatist, what does the future hold for the Empire?

Personally, I think Skyrim is going to gain some form of independence, though not under Stormcloak rule. Ulfric and his rebellion might be the instrument of Nordic independence, but probably won't control Skyrim, just because Skyrim has changed under the Empire and could become an imperialist power following the Empire's collapse. After some time, an era of Nordic expansion might come, which brings us to High Rock. Divided between Greater Betony and the West Reach, the Bretons only truly rule Greater Betony, the West Reach belonging to Nordic settlers, Orc tribes, the Bjoulsae Horse-Folk and the Reachmen. Skyrim might attempt to reconnect with their Nordic cousins in Jehanna and Farrun, but will probably not go farther, as the West Reach is famous for being an unruly land, difficult to conquer and almost impossible to control. Lastly, there is Cyrodiil. Depending on the instrument of the Empire's sundering, it might come under the control of several factions, or could be divided in two as it has been so many times throughout history. The Colovian Estates, the old kingdom of the Slavic-inspired western Cyrodiils, along with the West-Wealders, and Nibenay, home of the Roman-inspired Nibenese, greatly influenced by the Akaviri.

Now, not going into the details of the near future of mannish political organization, but there are a few Kirkbride quotes from TESlore for reference:

Regarding the Thalmor:

Answering the question "Are the Redguards right or is the Dominion's victory inevitable?"

Then there is this of course:

And this:

In short... things are looking bad for mankind, since I rather trust MK's connections to the TES devs.

I'm just confused as to how Bethesda will handle all the main quest lines with choices (Civil War, Dawnguard, etc.). In Daggerfall it was the Warp in the West, but will they really just Dragonbreak again for the civil war and such? Stuff like this makes me think the next TES will be pre-Arena.

Once I understand how they're handling that I'll predict just how badly men are going to be screwed over.

The Civil War is easy to handwave away if the next game is far away enough, or otherwise make it so either outcome is technically nill. I lean towards the Legion being pulled out of Skyrim after Mede is whacked and Stormcloak remnants take it back, but Ulfric is never going to see the throne for whatever reason. As for Dawnguard, even when siding with the vampires, the consensus seems to be that Harkon's plan is colossally stupid and will never blot out the sun for eternity. No dragon break is needed at all to rectify Skyrim's events, so I doubt that's what we'll be getting. As to the (Possible) the LDB absence in the next game, they'll just leave it to the players. Though (s)he's the only one that actually could be carried over into another game, but YMMV whether or not that's a good idea.

As for the Thalmor, I hate the idea of any single event like that being inevitable, so I'm willing to sit that plot thread out until later. I have no doubt that even if something seemingly detrimental happens to the Dominion, the community or someone else will handwave it away and spin a yarn that makes it look beneficial for them at the end of the day. The empire is probably boned, but I highly doubt we're going to get a elven hegemony all across Tamriel when it comes down to it.