The Morrowind logo doesn't look exactly like the Akavir Banner...
Actually, the Akaviri banner you posted is exactly the same as that Morrowind banner. And that banner is the Imperial banner. Which has been all over TES in some form or another.
So it's way more likely that the Skyrim "banner" is a broken down version of the Imerial banner (for instance: http://www.uesp.net/wiki/File:Imperial_banner.png) than that it's based on some supposed Akaviri banner.
You could argue that the banner draws inspiration from Akavir. (Also, that's exactly what is says on the subtext for the Akaviri banner you posted on the http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Akavir:
"An Akavir-inspired Banner".)
But I think that's a bit far fetched. The original design of the banner is much more likely to be inspired by the covenant of http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Akatosh with the Empire of Man, Akatosh being widely represented by a dragon as a symbol and also often linked to a dragon in physical form.
As for Skyrim:
The dislodging of the diamond (symbol for the amulet of kings) could indicate the demise of the Empire (likely), the breaking of the covenant between Akatosh and the Empire of Men (also likely), or it could indicate the banner preceding the imperial banner in age (less likely). The broken wing on the dragon, well that's up to speculation.
You can speculate for an Akaviri involvement in Skyrim though, given the heavy focus on dragons in the teaser trailer, according to Mysterious Akavir:
Ka Po' Tun is the "Tiger-Dragon's Empire". The cat-folk here are ruled by the divine Tosh Raka, the Tiger-Dragon. They are now a very great empire, stronger than Tsaesci (though not at sea). After the Serpent-Folk ate all the Men, they tried to eat all the Dragons. They managed to enslave the Red Dragons, but the black ones had fled to (then) Po Tun. A great war was raged, which left both the cats and the snakes weak, and the Dragons all dead. Since that time the cat-folk have tried to become the Dragons. Tosh Raka is the first to succeed. He is the largest Dragon in the world, orange and black, and he has very many new ideas.
"First," Tosh Raka says, "is that we kill all the vampire snakes." Then the Tiger-Dragon Emperor wants to invade Tamriel.Some would argue that
Tosh R
aka = Akatosh, or an aspect of Akatosh, or a mirror of Akatosh.
And there it becomes more complicated and interesting. Is Akatosh the protagenist or what is his role? Akatosh was involved in the covenant with the Empire, his blood was mystically joined with Alessia and her heirs, with the amulet of kings being the primary token. Is he looking to undo the covenant and the previous reign, or is he looking to renew the covenant? Is the hero (player) looking renew the covenant, or is he/she looking to prevent it and thus preserve independence for Skyrim from Cyrodil? I could go on..
And then there's this:
You should have acted. They're already here. The Elder Scrolls told of their return. Their defeat was merely delay. Til the time after Oblivion opened. When the sons of Skyrim would spill their own blood. But no-one wanted to believe. Believe they even existed. And when the truth finally dawns: it dawns in fire. But, there's one they fear. In their tongue, he's Dovahkiin: Dragon Born!Too many questions arise imho. There's some deep discussion going on in several threads like http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1150358-skyrim-trailer-breakdown/ and http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1149541-dragons-akavir-and-civil-war/. I'm going to wait for some announcements from Beth. That's the only way to be sure as far as I'm concerned.