thats the sort of thing I'd expect to be flaunted Pre Oblivion, in addition to it Mattering to the game, I saw the barrel the orum gang owns, it gets a skooma drop off every week by the game, I killed the runner to see if anything changed...
it didn't
so yes hopefully this is more fleshed out and widespread in Skyrim.
Cynically, certainly, I expect to see less of it than would be
possible in Skyrim, and I expect to see less of it than however much Todd says will be in it. But I still expect to see more of it than was in Oblivion.
It's all a relative measure - sort of like politics. Sometimes you have to settle for "less bad."
Oblivion's AI is well developed, it's just lobotomized daily. AI is victim to schedules.
http://cs.elderscrolls.com/constwiki/images/thumb/4/4d/CLE_TES-CS_AI-Object_Window.PNG/732px-CLE_TES-CS_AI-Object_Window.PNG
AI is fully functioning in itself. When told EAT at 5, they will actually search and find their food on their own. If their responsibility is low, they will even attempt to steal it. There are some NPCs(exampled above) left with "eat" packages for long durations which also happen to have low responsibility who steal food all the time.
Off course anyone into AI will see the abysmal error in that. They don't get hungry on their own, they don't get sleepy on their own. They are being told. These things shouldn't bind to schedules like that but be active at all times. This is probably the most underutilized tech I've ever seen...
Actually - if you want to get precise about it, Oblivion "AI" (and game "AI" in general) isn't AI at all - it's just more complex scripting that hopefully manages to convey some illusion of intelligence. So, yes - it all comes down to how complex that scripting actually is and whether or not it has gaps in it or conflicts with itself.
For instance, in the Orum gang skooma smuggling ring example, the paint horse that ends up parked by the waterfront gate to the IC belongs to them. It ends up parked there because somebody failed to set it up so that Oghash actually rides the horse back and forth to Cheydinhal, so she only rides it as far as the gate, then gets off and walks back to Cheydinhal. That's because she's not really "intelligent" - she just does what the game tells her to do (or doesn't do what it doesn't tell her to do). And until some quantum leap in game technology, that's going to remain the case.