You ain't lyin'! :celebrate:
I believe Skyrim will have a much greater replay value than Oblivion and previous TES games, for the following reasons:
- 280 perks, out of which you can select only 50-70
- Perks allow for greater specialization of non-magic using characters (for the first time personally I am interested in playing a pure warrior or pure stealth character)
- Radiant Story Quests
- Infinitely respawning dragons
- greater complexity in NPC relationships
- more potential for ambitious mods with Creation Kit
- possibly a more dynamic main quest, considering the backdrop of the civil war and the player's involvement with either the Rebel or Empire factions
Accordingly, I estimate 5 - 10 playthroughs of 400+ hours each, spread out over a period of several years.
This is a much greater replay value than my experience with Oblivion and Morrowind
He also said there were around 130 dungeons with 50% being small dungeons and some being 'epic' 1-2 hour dungeons. No word on what percent are 'epic' and what percentage are medium. If I speculate 50% will take 15 minutes each(this is a confirmed by Todd estimate), 40% will be medium sized and take 30 minutes each and 10% will be large and average 1.5 hours each that is 61.75 hours of dungeon crawling glory.
Add these numbers up and it's 96.75 hours and we haven't even dealt with random dragon encounters, guild side quests, non guild NPC quests, random exploration, using the various abilities in the game such as cooking, getting lost looking at the 3D objects in our inventory (some are said to contain clues to quests) and on and on.
If the hardest difficulty setting is anything remotely like playing Oblivion at around 75% on the slider with FCOM and Duke Patricks installed, then I expect to be dying frequently and even those smaller "15 minute" dungeons will take hours to complete. The bigger dungeons, much longer than 2 hours.
With these mods installed, when I play Oblivion, I die at almost every combat encounter. You can one-shot enemies with your bow, but they can also one-shot you, so you have to approach enemy archers very carefully, hiding behind trees, rocks, etc. It's taken me hundreds of hours since December just to get up to level 7. Since it seems that Duke Patricks Combat Archery was the inspiration for the improved Archery in Skyrim, this looks promising.