I looked at quite a few players that squad up and players that use broken load outs. The patterns are slightly different to what I expected.
1.) Good player using squads and the op load outs eg (scar + AA etc) . Highest K/D and W/L. Ability as measured by accuracy does not predict K/D. In many graphs their accuracy is increasing overtime but K/D remains fairly flat. Ability is not affecting K/D, thus they get bored with the game as they are not improving when they put more effort in.
2.) Mediocre player using squads and op load outs. Their K/D rises when they discover squads and the load outs but in fact their accuracy starts to decline relative to K/D. They get lazy and can achieve the same K/D, these players actually get worse overtime. They are effectively stuck using their op load out or squads as their performance is otherwise dropping o.O. As a result they are more likely to quit over time.
3.) Good player not using squads or op load outs (K/D + W/L is usually lower than category 1). Accuracy trends very closely to K/D. These players are frustrated because though they are improving, category 1 players performance is generally higher and it takes a great deal of improvement to overcome the advantage from squads and powerful cheezy load outs.
4.) Mediocre or new player, with the lowest w/l and K/D. Most likely to get frustrated as even though they are slowly improving it has no effect on their in game performance against category 1 and 2 players. If they stick with the game they are the most likely to assume category 1 player s are cheating. They are unable to show growth and get frustrated with the game and quit.
Conclusion: Category one players have the highest performance but as their skill improves their K/D does not, this can lead to frustration and quitting the game. Category two players, do not see the value in trying to improve their skills, get worse over time and do not make a long term commitment and are likely to quit. Category three players are likely to stay if they do not slash their wrists too much and rage quit against category 1 players. Category four players do not stay with the game for long as there seems to be no reward for their improvement or no improvement for their effort.
Category 2 and 4 players are likely to quit the game quite fast, this is why we are still seeing new players but don't stick around. Category 1 players are likely to quit as they feel pigeon holed to certain loadouts and playing in a squad otherwise their K/D drops in the short term. Category 3 players quit when their improvement slows down too much or is frustrated by category 1 players.
End result: Players online 1000.
EDIT: Only the top 30% has a positive win loss ratio. If autobalance was working then the it should be the 50% percentile and above with a positive win loss ratio.
K/D its only half of all players with a positive K/D, is this where it should be? Does that mean its just mainly squads rooting the system.
» Thu May 16, 2013 4:32 pm 
