» Thu Mar 10, 2011 12:15 am
Well, New Vegas took ~2 years because it was made using what Bethesda used in Fallout 3. It's engine, many of it's assets, and so on. That cut a lot of off the development time needed. Fallout 4, however, needs to be built from the ground up.
Take a look at http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/1057/timeline17.png I made for the http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1119624-official-tes-v-speculation-thread-69/. As you can see, Bethesda's games take a very long time to make. You can be absolutely positive that any game they make will take close to 3 years, if not more, to be released once development starts. Now, Bethesda currently has 2 projects in development, as you can seen in that timeline. One has been in development for 2+ years, and the other is still in pre-production, so actual development of the game hasn't started. It's almost certain that the project that's 2 years in development is The Elder Scrolls V, and the one in pre-production is Fallout 4. That is, ignoring the possibility of a new IP, of course. The reasoning behind this is that Bethesda hasn't released an Elder Scrolls game, their most successful series along with Fallout, in more than 4 1/2 years, while a Fallout game will be released in just a few days. Bethesda may not have developed New Vegas, but releasing yet another Fallout game right after having 2 Fallout games in 2 years would be over-saturating the market. Anyway, the point is that they haven't even started making Fallout 4 yet, and are still in the planning stages if anything. Even if Bethesda started developing it right this instant, we likely wouldn't hear an announcement for 2 years, and we wouldn't see it released for a year or more after that.