I voted for both. I have fond memories of games that used both. Morrowind does not give me fond memories of lockpicking.
Basically, as much as many denizens of this forum like the real-time aspect, lockpicking in Morrowind is and always was a joke. Oblivion at least made it something more than a dice roll. Fallout 3 made it something other than a timing game. And yet... it's still not all that interesting of an activity.
What we need are:
- more than one type of lock. In Morrowind, you might have had variable difficulty (moreso than Oblivion), but a Level 100 lock was the same as a level 5 lock. Oblivion used locks of 1-5 pins, but they were always composed of the same pins. Never different pins, or combination-type locks. We hear all about the different types of locks in the skill books... let's get to SEE them. And more importantly, PICK them.
- variable complexity. By complexity, I mean "Easy" and "Very Hard" in Oblivion are of different scales, but equal complexity: they are both multi-pin locks with a single pin type. Lockpicking would be more satisfying if some chests had straight pins AND offset or bent pins, as well as other security features. The ability of a player to smoothly master two or three types of pins isn't much different than mastering one. The effort required is a bit more.
- multi-stage traps. The first dozen or so traps in Return to Krondor are fulfilling to disarm because they are multi-stage and you have to figure out what tools disarm what components best. Bethesda can certainly top that experience, I'd think, with traps of more than three stages.
- Partially disarmed traps should have altered triggering characteristics (example: a trap might, after you tamper with the trigger, never trigger on lockpick, but now be vulnerable to going off when the container is jostled. This means removing or adding to the contents leads to a magic dice roll to see if the trap goes off) and possibly do more (or less) damage, depending on how disarmed they are.
- No unified tool kits "readily available". While I don't mean "don't put a full tool set as such in the game", I do mean "make collecting a full tool set an accomplishment", at least until the player is a proven thief/assassin. At that point, I have no objection to selling a full kit at once (although there should ALWAYS be a genuine advantage to scrounging your own set: higher quality tools and picks should be hand-placed in the world.)
Now, not every lock should be trapped. In fact, very few should be, as an overall percentage.
But trapped doors and chests... should contain stuff that makes a player WANT to pick locks and dismantle traps. Not always, of course. As a bone to the forumites, an extreme lock protecting nothing more than a few notes and some low-class clutter should exist. Because as long as the notes are... interesting... we're crazy enough to find that funny.