I absolutely guarantee you that they ARE going to use "chance to hit." They have to, just as they did in Oblivion. What do you think is happening when an opponent blocks you? When an opponent dodges? Those things happen PRECISELY because you failed to meet the "chance to hit."
What they're going to do, certainly at least as well as they did in Oblivion, is mask the bald nature of "chance to hit" with animations - with dodging and blocking and such. But it's still "chance to hit." It's still, at heart, determined by a "dice roll."
That's the thing that you seem to be completely failing to grasp here - "dice rolls" are necessary. They already exist in games and they HAVE TO exist in games. For all intents and purposes, they exist in life. If you go outside during a storm, there's a chance that you're going to be hit by lightning. Whether or not you in fact are hit by lightning is determined, to some considerable degree, by a cosmic "dice roll." ANYTHING, whether in a game or in life, that has some element of chance to it (which is damned near everything) is subject to "dice rolls."
You're just going to have to come to terms with that. It's not going to change.
Okay, first of all, "dice" does not represent what happens in turn-based games. They are numbers generated from specific (as opposed to random) parameters given a variable.
Secondly, (it's not mentioned here, but somewhere else in this thread), MW was not a "real time" fighting system, nor was it purely a "turn based" fighting system, in the traditional sense. What it was, was a turn-based fighting system in real time. In other words, it wasn't a traditional, "it's your turn to attack, pick your action" like a Final Fantasy VII or a Pokeman game. The action you choose was in real time, while the effect was generated as if it were turn-based. Thus the complaints.
What we have now, is specific calculations given a situation and certain variables and an action (RE reaction), is determined from a previous action and a database of response, through which the system calculates the most appropriate. This is opposed to generated numbers from specific parameters given a variable, eg, "dice."
This may seem off topic, but let me explain.
Earlier, someone said that we don't have the computing power to determine "reactionary AI," or AI which can react to a player-controlled avatar in any given circumstance and thus a "dice roll" is necessary. This isn't true either.
Think of the process, through which the NPC (I'll use NPC to avoid using overly complicated terms and systems), must calculate in order to react to a player-controlled avatar (henceforth referred to as PCA). Now think of this process as A, B, C. With modern computing powers, processes can be threaded so they don't come in order. I.E. A computer, or Xbox or PS3, can compute the needed calculations (what is happening and how an NPC needs to react), by doing these processes out of order, in other words, A, C, B. Or even B, A, C.
The best examples of this is through real-time-physics engines. I could go into great detail, but an example would fit better. Let's say you're playing a hockey game that just came out this year (in order to be modern). The reaction of a player being hit by another player is calculated by the simulated speed, momentum, (Re, kinetic energy) displaced by one player onto another, and also takes into account the size of both players, direction and a myriad of other variables. This is calculated and determined on the spot--very quickly. These calculations are, however, simulated, which cause some "goofy" reactions at times. Many games use real-time physics, like Red Dead Redemption, GTA IV, Backbreaker, NHL 11, just to name a few.
Now, this is relevant to show how powerful today's computing systems really are, and how accessible this power is to the general public. Most people don't understand the vast complexity needed to design and program video games and how much power is present in their Xboxes or PS3s
As far as the so-called "dice-rolls" as opposed to...well...not, the really only choice for a full-time real-time game is, not, because the technology is present that an NPC can react to the actions of a PCA in real-time. This is why when you play football, soccer or hockey, when you go to tackle or check or steal the ball from another player, that player might, "deke," change direction, pass, or do nothing, (again, within certain parameters given the difficulty level and the predetermined skill-set of both players and the actions of the PCA). In other words, while a hit-miss system might be a good idea for turn-based games, but not generally for real-time games, because instead of a simulated action/reaction, that you have (A simulated swing of a sword vs an animated one, which is why MW was a turn-based game in real-time), a real-time game will give you the same thing, but in terms of animations instead of arbitrary actions.
Thus, the technology for an NPC to "dodge, block, counter or do nothing" and do so fully depending on the actions of a PCA is certainly there, but only needs to be employed (as it has been for some time now).
To put all of this much more simply, but not so simply that the rest of my post is redundant: a turn-based (or hit-miss) system, is a representation of what a real-time engine animates.
And in regards to the person, whom I've quoted. These actions of dodging and blocking, in Oblivion were not a result of a so-called "dice-roll," but the AI determined the best action based on the situation with its parameters of available actions. If I swing a sword, they block. If I'm too far away, I miss. If I stumble, they will likely keep hitting me. This is not chance, but these are actions based on calculations about what's happening. If I stumble, they may try to still hit me, but if in that same situation, I didn't stumble, they may not try to. If I sit there holding block, they might not try to hit me for a while, but if I block long enough, they eventually will (probably programmed not for the NPC to be deliberately stupid, but to avoid stalemates of infinite length).
Things like being ungodly with a sword, too accurate and whatnot, can be addressed differently. Bow sway, sword weight, and player's strength, etc.
Now the gamer in me:
I say really the only choice is not a so-called "dice roll" but real-time fighting. Of course I always have a chance to miss, but this should be based on the situation and not arbitrary numbers given the variable that is the number assigned to my skill of blade.
If I swing a sword and hit an orc and no one was around to see it, did it happen? If I miss, it was because I was too far away, my arrow, or spell wasn't on target, the character moved or blocked or a number of other possibilities, but not because some arbitrary system telling me that I was within the required parameters of hitting a target, but because of my skill level, I somehow "missed." If my sword collides with something, it should "hit" it. Like I said, if the concern is over being too good, that can be addressed with other methods.