I don't think we know, but I don't think its the http://www.imperial-library.info/content/oblivion-lost-histories-tamriel. Contrary to the series name, the scrolls have never played a major part, so they haven't been developed.
Maybe. =) Consider this: TES games are meant to be played in many different ways, by many different people. There is never one "true" hero, just as there is seldom one "true" outcome of events. Indeed, the way events unfold throughout the course of a TES game mirror the scrolls in their manifold and nebulous nature. So, while the scrolls may appear to play a relatively minor role in the games, it could be said that they serve as a metaphor for the games' overall design philosophy. In other terms,
you, the player, are the author of history. The contents of the Elder Scrolls hinge upon
your agenda.
Really, I'm just pulling this out of my ass. But, it's a fairly valid justification for why the series is named after something of little import in the game world.