They're both sequels. A spinoff would be something like Fallout Tactics. Though, its technically a sequel too.
I think it depends to you, as a player, if those ties are strong enough for you.
Personnally, i tend to think FONV more as a sequel and Fo3 more as a spin-off. Some other consider Fo3 as a sequel and FoNV as a spin-off.
On the other hand, if we get what we hope, with Bethesda continuing in the East and Obsidian continuing in the West, we would have two franchises in the same franchise with both their own sequels.
If you take other franchises, there are many games/movies/books that don't have a number in the end, and are still sequels.
As far as I am concerned, Fallout 3 is a (direct) sequel only because of the number in the title, and because that's what it is wanted to be by the developer. Gameplay and presentationwise it is more of a spinoff than Fallout: Tactics; somewhere around BoS level of spinoff (a game to which it could well be a sequel; and one that improves upon almost all the design).
Why NV holds no number, I don't know; but the devs mentioned that it is to the series something like what Vice City was to the GTA.
It seems more the publisher intent than the dev intent. I don't think Obsidian refused to call it Fo4.
Also, it may have something to do with the cost of the game. I don't have any informations about this, but i bet Fo3 cost more than FoNV, considering it took five years instead of one.
I do not consider any of the fallout games a sequel or a spin offs but separate titles in the same fallout universe. There are differences in each game and that is what I like. All the games tell a story of life in that universe or at least a story in the time period of that universe based on the location of the story.