Regardless of the quality, I think Bethesda's pedigree as of right now, is so strong that they pretty much have a "Get out of crappy game free" card. If Skyrim svcks, it will still sell. The real problem would be, is if Skyrim svcked and the next did as well.
As for what I think? I believe BGS has too much talent to release something under an 8.5 on a 10 scale. It's not like they push out games as annual iterations as cash-ins. Each product is obviously a labor of love.
I, like many out here, have been looking forward to Skyrim since I first got wind of it. I absolutely loved Oblivion, and am one of the fans who believe that oblivion was better than morrowind. Now knowing how many had big issues with Oblivion after being very hyped up about it, how will you handle it if it doesn't come out nearly as well as you expect.
I'm opening this up for discussion to help keep my fellow TES lovers feet on the ground, which can be quite hard.
Exploration has always been the core of an Elder Scrolls experience. Whether or not that is intentional. Oblivion's only
real failure, was removing a large amount of the incentive for exploration, and I'm not just talking about Loot, though that certainly was a part of it. The overall sense of the game just didn't reward discovery, too much was tied down to random quests or that terrible level-scaling implementation, as well as an overall lack of uniqueness and coloring detail to the world. The world failed to compel by being formulaic and predictable to the point of exploitation.
It's hard to explain, In Oblivion, the player's interaction with the world was great, but the world's interaction with the player (Incentive, stimuli, challenge, contrast) was just sorely lacking.
Morrowind was the Opposite. Actually playing Morrowind, the game is pretty clunky, the magic is boring, stealth is stupid and shallow, but how the world compels the player to keep going anyway, is just amazing. I think that's how you define a "Toy" from an "Experience".