The intent of this poll is not to show Bethesda how many TES fans _will_ buy Skyrim if it is Steam exclusive, I don't think anyone will dispute that there will be plenty of sales. I am also not encouraging anyone to engage in a boycott of Skyrim if it is steam exclusive, nor is this a petition to Bethesda. Each of us, makes her/his own consumer choices.
The intent of the thread is also not to pose as representative sample of the TES market. If Beth stands on a clear empirical case that they are likely to make plenty of profit by virtue of the advantages of Steam exclusive distribution, and irrespective of losing some of their customers and fans, then I will concede that they should do what is best for their business. I am guessing that they do not really have those data. This poll is intended to pique their interest in actually thinking it through, and considering both the short-term and long-term costs of alienating some fans by virtue of making Skyrim Steam Exclusive.
In the interest of transparency, I will acknowledge my own bias in this respect. I have no desire to be involved in Steam and will not buy the game if it is Steam exclusive. I already refused to buy Civ5 and New Vegas for those reasons, so I have no fear of my ability to 'resist the temptations.' Rather, I am thinking that there is a trend where more of the best games are becoming Steam exclusive. I would hate to see that happen, and I guess if it does, I'll just stop gaming or only play those games that do not require it.
Having said all of that, I would ask all of you to please be civil. I would be nice to see this thread not get locked so that we can have dialogue to go with the poll results.
I would point out that, if Steam is exclusive, we "Steamophobes" who are resolved not to particpate in Steam, simply don't get to play the game(s), whereas you "Steamophiles" lose nothing.
If Steam is one option for distribution (similar to Mount&Blade Warband which is available by Steam and also through the Gamersgate online store) then we Steamophobes have the opportunity to enjoy the game, and continue to be engaged members of the fan community, and again, you Steamophiles lose nothing. IMO, Steam exclusivity must be weighed against the intrinsic costs of alienating part of the fanbase. Steam exclusivity may offer benefits to Bethesda about which I can only speculate, but I would really like to encourage them to consider the tradeoffs carefully, and that is what this poll is intended to promote.
I don't intend this thread to be about whether Steam is so good that it should be the only means of distribution as some people seem to think, nor about whether Steam is so bad that it should be scourged from the planet. It is simply about what proportion of us would prefer to have the option to buy the game by other means besides Steam. Our reasons for this are probably legitimate topics for discussion in this thread, but there is no need to turn this into an Us vs. Them battle among us fans. Whether we prefer Steam or not, we all share the love of the games, it is just that some of us don't care to participate in a particular distributor.
The results of this poll will not be able to tell Bethesda about the actual numbers of sales they might lose, because for one reason, we forumites are not likely representative of the total market, particular the total market that is networked to Steam. But what it can show is, if there is a non-trivial fraction of us who have either reservations about, or prefernces against Steam, if not a true commitment not to participate in Steam.
IMO as a social scientist, Bethesda should take an interest in a poll like this one. If 10 or 15% of the respondents to this poll say that they "will not buy" the game because it is Steam exclusive, another 10 or 15% say they are in the middle and the remaining 70 to 80% say they will buy no matter what, then that suggests a potentially important marketing mistake from going with Steam exlusive distribution. While the proportion of Steam users who will buy the game might be increased by it being exclusive, the loss in long-term fans, and others could add up to losses that exceed the gains achieved by Steam exclusivity.
These are numbers I do not pretend to foretell, and which this poll cannot reveal. What this poll might do is suggest the possibility that such risks are real and provoke Bethesda to acquire good data to examine the issue.
ADDIT: when I started this poll, I was not aware of this other similar poll http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1155984-skyrim-steam-and-you/.This poll is a lot less detailed than SteveDog's, which covers additional topics. But now that this poll has over three-hundred responses it is interesting to compare patterns of responses on a couple of the questions.