» Tue May 17, 2011 11:32 am
What will I do? Begin fantasizing even more about all the possibilities... Probably play some Oblivion and/or Fallout 3, get annoyed by all the annoying noobs and new threads in the shiny new TES V board here... Be happy...
In response to the question about the length of time between Oblivion's reveal and release: well, the first teaser trailer for FO3 was released in June 2007, about 16 months before the game hit shelves. (Though everyone knew FO3 was coming by April 2007, as Beth had publicly acquired the license and created a website for a new Fallout game.)
Oblivion was first confirmed in September of 2004, though details didn't surface for a month and a half later, at the end of October 2004, and nothing of real substance was revealed until after E3 2005 in May. From the first confirmation until the release date (which was pushed back, something Beth is obviously doing everything they can to avoid this time around) was a span of about 18 months, and from the time when the first trailer was shown to the [postponed] release date was 10 months.
We can safely assume that there will not be a 6-8 month gap between the announcement and the time when rea news starts to flow. It will probably be more like Fallout; they will make an announcement, some early details will emerge soon thereafter, and within a month or two we'll have a trailer and start getting more information. I think the wait between the reveal and the release will probably be 9-14 months; I don't want to be to narrow here because I'm really just basing it off of how I interpreted various comments made by people like Todd. If he says it will be the shortest time from reveal to release, that means it will be less than 16 months . . . and probably significantly less. So I can't see it lasting much more than a year, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was significantly less than a year.
With all this in mind, let's assume they make the reveal sometime between October and March (please forgive another broad estimate). If this is the case, and we apply my broad estimate wait of 9-14 months, I think we can expect the next title to hit shelves just in time for the Holiday season of 2011. Once we get official word it will be a bit easier to get a decent idea of when the game will come out, but for now this is my best guess. I'm optimistic that we'll have the game H2 2011, and that we'll learn a lot about it during H1 2011.