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The big reason I'm not buying the "exactly 200 years" argument is because of the existence of the Prydwen - the amount of time it would take for a post-war faction to build, retrofit or repair an airship to the point it could be flown hundreds of miles to operate in Boston would be a number of years at best. Well, that, and having Fallout 4 set in 2277 just doesn't really feel right, especially given the state of the CWBoS just a few months prior. And, why would Bethesda have Obsidian set New Vegas a few years after 3 to keep the timeline moving forward if they themselves weren't going to keep to do the same in regard to 4 after Vegas?

Personally, I think anywhere between 2283-2289 is very likely - 2283 being 500 years after the end of the Revolutionary War, 2289 being 500 years after the US Constitution replaced the Articles of Confederation...

That only matters if the BOS we see in Fallout 4 is the Capital Wasteland BOS. It could easily be the portion of the Midwest BOS (from Fallout Tactics) that didn't crash their airships in Chicago.

Or heck a brand new cell of BoS, not to far fetched, most of our knowledge is via in game mouth to ear.

?obi'''you left out "some body farted...."

You pretty much need to look at the design requirements of a machine in order to understand its precision. The robobrains in Vault 112 are primarily there for maintenance. The don't ever directly interact with the residents once the individual's pod is closed. Their primary concern is to ensure the Vault functions within a set of tolerances, conversational skills is not a significant concern.

Codsworth's functions appear to be along the lines of steward/butler/maid/nurse/nanny/handyman/guard. Its job requires it to interact with its owners constantly.

The robobrains of Vault 112 job is all about precision. Codsworth's job is all about making the life of its owners more comfortable. The robobrains will be precise (within tolerances) all the time. Codsworth's programmed precision would be dictated by the situation.

It short, it would be reasonable to assume that since Codworth's programming is designed to enhance the comfort level of its owner that it could be very precise in some situations and imprecise in others based on its owners needs.

The short of it is, we cannot rely on Codsworth's reference to 200 years to determine the actual date that the protagonist leaves the vault. 200 years could be exact, but it could also be a "conversational" 200 years. I, personally, lean towards a conversation 200 years and not an exact 200 years. Either way, will will know for certain in approximately 1.1954 months.

I'm not so sure. I would think that as a butler/caretaker type, Codsworths programming would be time oriented. He would have to be able to know to perform certain tasks at certain times or on certain days so he would have programming that carefully keeps track of time. Therefore, I don't think Codsworth would make approximations where time s concerned.

I diden't see it but I'm sure it has come up. But there was a tweet (also linked on the timeline on the wiki) https://twitter.com/dcdeacon/status/616721092963512320

To me this makes it pretty clear that the game starts on October 23, 2277.

I agree there are hints of things in F3 that sound like they could be used but maybe they are for Fallout 5 or even just a DLC for F4.

My wild theory is that F4 will have something to do with getting food production set up.

F3: clean water

F4: Farms start making new food/start rebuilding

F5/F4DLC: Rebuild/War/Go to China

I see your point, but I disagree. When I think personal Butler, I think of someone like Alfred, Batman's aide de camp and butler - someone who was a coordinated, timely and precise individual (to a degree - he's human after all).

I don't really see the whole 'situational' nature of when to be precise and when not to. I just see it as a rather poor justification for the year being rounded down or up. It's pointless to give the coffee temperature perfectly but then turn around and start beating around the bush about the year of the protagonist's return.

Someone has mentioned already that Codsworth is 200 years old and he's been exposed to the harshness of the waste, so it's possible he's got a few loose bolts in his head. Now that's a possibility but then again it's not really evident in dialogue with him. He talks normal. Recognizes you immediately. And instantly resumes the task of taking care of you (getting food for you). Any damage that was done to him was superficial (i.e. scratches, dust, dirt, and missing flamer).

I'll defer to occam's razor on this - i.e. the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be chosen. We have Todd telling us 200 years, Pete Hines reaffirming the date, Codsworth in game saying it's 200 years, and the product page saying 200 years.

I disagree with this; the dialogue he engages in after leaving the vault significantly hints towards some kind of problem - he has two very distinct and separate voices, with different accents; the difference is most evident between his greeting dialogue and his 'you must be suffering from hunger-induced madness!' dialogue.

It could just be that the VA isn't particularly good at staying in a single character, but it could also be an intentional hint towards Codsworth being damaged in some way.

Occam's Razor also further states that other, more complicated solutions may ultimately provide more accurate predictions, it then goes on to basically say that in the absence of differences in predictive ability the fewer assumptions is where the smart money is.

You are making the assumption that Pete Hines, Todd Howard and Codsworth are giving exact time frames. I am assuming they are using a conversational 200 years. That is one assumption each. You are assuming that Codsworth is only capable of one level of precision. I am assuming that Codsworth is capable of multiple levels of precision. That is two assumptions each. So just how is it you are making fewer assumptions than anyone else?

It's not an assumption when the information comes from authorities on the subject. Pete reaffirming that the game takes place 200 years later, via twitter, is not conversational 200 years. It's 200 years. It seems like a fault in logic to assume that everything is just smoke and mirrors.

Single biggest clue as to the start date. Todd Howard during the E3 presentation: "Now we're not going to be spoiling or talking about the game's story tonight. But you do survive and get lowered into the vault. Events transpire, but you then emerge 200 years later as the Sole Survivor of Vault 111."

The first part is really important. Anything story related that is influenced by the date, such as Project Purity expanding and finding its way further North, the involvement of CWBoS, including an older and more capable Arthur Maxson, as well as key NPCs such as Madison Li establishing themselves within the Commonwealth, all such elements will also be required to be kept under wraps. And the best way to stop people from accurately guessing is to throw them a red herring with the "200 years" comment. But there is a further clue that ties the story and the start date together, and that is the huge number of references to the American Revolutionary War. It is my belief that the events seen during Fallout 3 pertaining to Harkness (the Replicated Man quest), including the mention of freedom and independence, signify the start of a new Revolutionary War. A war between humans and synthetics. And this would have begun as soon as the story in Fallout 3 ended. This would also have required a certain amount of time to pass, in order to for such a conflict to progress to the point where it the dominating event in the Commonwealth. This would not have influenced the storyline of New Vegas, because of the distance involved, but it would most certainly have become common knowledge in the Capital Wasteland, and so a number of other familiar NPCs and factions will almost certainly show up. The most logical time for us to emerge from the vault would be during the later stages of this conflict, so that we can assist not only with fighting, but also with ending the war. And given the length of the first Revolutionary War, the most obvious time for this to take place would be around the middle of 2285, giving the entire conflict a duration of 8 years.

But looking further into Todd's quote, we can see even more evidence. The final sentence suggests the point of view of the protagonist. He or she believes that approximately 200 years have passed due to the dates on the various logs, as well as the date shown on the Pip-Boy itself. It would be perfectly natural to round the actual figure in your head so that it's easier to digest, rather that repeatedly telling yourself, "I can't believe I've been under for 207 years, 8 months, and 11 days." They also consider themselves as being the Sole Survivor of Vault 111, due to them being the only person left inside the vault who is not dead at the time. We know from the Brian T Delaney interviews that behind every quest and every in-game action, they are searching for their family. This means that they were not in the vault at the time the protagonist awoke, and so their whereabouts are unknown. And if one half of this sentences can be regarded as being ambiguous, then why not the other?

Pete Hines will also say whatever Todd wants him to say about the date, because it is his job to support his team with either promoting or protecting any specific details about the game. And as for Codsworth, he is an NPC coded by Bethesda Game Studios, and so he will no doubt say whatever he is told to say. As an in-game character however, his precise comment about the temperature of the protagonist's coffee was made under relatively 'normal' circumstances before the Great War. Given his humanised personality, the two centuries or so following the nuclear holocaust would have almost certainly had some effect, especially if much of this time was spent on his own. When he finally sees his former master, he is not passing him a beverage, he is reuniting with somebody from his distant past. This is why his reaction could be construed as being highly 'emotional'. And yet, if we look at the dialogue options after he offers to 'whip up a snack' (probably the first meaningful task he has been able to carry out in a very long time), there is one that says "200 years?" I am more than certain that, if we choose this option, Codsworth will say something along the lines of "Well, it's actually 207 years, 8 months, and 11 days to be precise, but after such a long time one can easily lose count."

There's an overt bias towards a later start date (2285) because it's in bed with your other theories. It's built on too many assumptions to begin with . Arthur Maxson was relegated to a broom closet in Fo3 and even at 18 he doesn't command enough influence outside of his family name to do anything. Him being this major player in Fo4 is doubtful. The Madison Li debacle is unknown. I don't doubt we'll see her, but how big her role will be is hard to say.

I will still defer to Pete's tweet as being the chief source because he's an authority on the subject, and he was reaffirming Todd's original 'claim.' It's really not that complicated. You're theories are fun and all to think about, but they don't really need to intertwine themselves so heavily on a start date.

All of my theories are indeed related, but this is due to the fact that they all share the same source material which I have used as evidence. But this is not the only reason I have suggested this particular year for the start of Fallout 4. Comparing the start dates of previous games in the series gives us a very big clue. Look at the following two sets of dates, and see which makes more sense, and is therefore more likely (I have not included Tactics in this line-up, as it is considered a spin-off).

First set, doesn't look or feel 'right'. Breaks any sense of continuity.

It was already confirmed that the game is set mostly after FO3. And not during FO3 (just the pre-war part is before FO3 of course!)

As I mentioned in another of these threads...
If we wind up emerging from stasis after a pre-determined amount of time- is it more likely to be 200 years, or 213 years?

Since we emerge alone, I am assuming the stasis chamber released us as it was programmed. We certainly didn't let our self out.

As for NV. it isn't a numbered game. So putting it in a chronological list doesn't necessarily mean a thing. It isn't an official sequel to the main series, so an official sequel shouldn't need to take when it happened into consideration.

In our reality, digital computers track time by counting Ticks (aka, Jiffies). The actual length of time a Tick is varies from system to system. On most Windows 64-bit systems a Tick is 100 nanoseconds. Computers have a unit of time called an Epoch. The Tick count starts at the beginning of the Epoch, which for Windows 64-bit systems is January 1, 1601 00:00:00 UT based on a Gregoran-ized calendar.

When you query the system for the current date/time, on Windows it will convert the Tick count to something more human usable and return the Year, Month, Day, Hour, Minute, Second and Millisecond. Do you have the clock on your computer displaying milliseconds (there is a way to do it), if you do, whatever for? If not, why not?

Codsworth in most ways, if not all ways, is more capable that any Win64 computer on the market today. Therefor it would be reasonable to assume that Codsworth can measure time at least down to the nearest millisecond. Since you seem to believe that Codsworth would not make approximations where time is concerned, and since Codsworth stated it had been 200 years, then it has been exactly 200 years, 0 months, 0 days, 0 hours, 0 minutes, 0 seconds and 0 milliseconds from the time that Codsworth last saw the protagonist to the time he stated how long it had been since he last saw the protagonist.

Even if Codsworth isn't as capable as a Win64 machine when it comes to time keeping, he would at the very least be able to distinguish time in 1 second intervals because he wouldn't be able to function properly otherwise.

Codsworth would have a schedule, but he cannot adhere to it with any degree of precision simply because it will be constantly modified by the vagaries of human biology and thought processes. As an example: He could change the baby every 2 hours and six minutes whether the baby needed changing or not, but if the baby needs changing 1 hour after the last change, he cannot wait one hour and six minutes before changing it without running the risk of mommy or daddy throwing him in the nearest river.

I'm still convinced that our spouse broke us out by triggering a system failure inside the vault. This could have been achieved by remotely accessing the Vault-Tec mainframe back in DC, which would suggest than they had help. The most likely explanation would be a defector who also helped them escape from the Institute, and the fact of them being pursued means that they would have to stay out of sight to avoid recapture.

Honestly I'd be happy if my spouse and child were just dead. I feel like it'd be a more emotional experience if, after all this time looking for them, hoping they're still alive, they end up to have been either dead the whole time or killed by a hostile faction. Either way though, I think us getting out of whatever suspended animation we're in is either a malfunction, or caused by some outside source.

When we face Shaun at the end of the main quest, I'm quite sure he won't be dead, although anyone who gets in his way probably will be. When we catch up with our spouse however, they would have deteriorated significantly since escaping the Institute, and would not have very long left.

In every Beth game you start out with a "bag". You start out fighting from the start. We don't know when Vault 111's inhabitants were originally planed on being unfrozen. It could have been only after 100 years. Number of things could have happened to cause this to fail. When you get your pip boy, you are actually outside the vault in the elevator shaft. You see a skeleton, thus the vault was opened long ago. You are unfrozen, directly or indirectly by someone. There are weapons on your pipboy suggesting you may have looted a few corpses. The only thing we get from official sources is 200 years. This is a vague number because they don't want to give us any details, it is as simple as that. It will be Arthur Maxson in the next game, that is why you were introduced to him and his "broom closet" in the last game. When Godsworh tells you its been 200 years, you have a choice to ask him "200 years?", this is when he would have given you a precise number of years.