Is it actually confirmed what year Fallout 4 takes place in, or is it just conjecture from what Codsworth says after you return?
(the quote "That means you're erm... two centuries late for dinner! Perhaps I could whip you up a snack? You must be famished!")

conjecture from Codsworth

It somewhat depends on who you ask. Some people think it's confirmed that Fallout 4 starts in 2277, others think it's only speculation. I personally fall more into the speculation group, but to each their own.

We have all seen the E3 footage. Todd stated they started "working on F4" in 2009 which is a load of crap. As many references you find in FO3 to Boston they at least had a good idea what would happen in F4 as they were making F3. The BOS in Boston is the CWBOS. It wouldn't make sense otherwise. Arthur Maxson does nothing in F3 except make an introduction. His purpose will be seen in F4. He is only 9 years old in F3. What other BOS has vertibirds other than CWBOS? The "200" years is a vague estimate and they are not letting us know anything about the game. Just like when you go to Sloan in FONV and you order a meal, Jas ask if you want a 200 year old Salisbury steak...it's actually older (204). You get the point I'm making. Why don't they just come out and tell us the year if they don't have anything to hide..because they don't have too. They are saying "200" because they are informing us it is roughly in the time span of the last games. It isnt 100 years after the war or 100 years after F3..it's just letting us know we are in the "200 year" ballpark after the war. I can remember for a long time, rumors were it was going to be a prequel.

I'm in the group that believes Bethesda said they will only make the timeline go forward, so it has to be after New Vegas.

I'd prefer it to be about 15-20 years after FO3, after Arthur Maxson has had time to grow up. One of the airships in the video was named the Prydwen, which was the name of King Arthur's ship ... a name that a grown Maxson might choose for his airship.

However, the only thing we know for sure is that 200 years has passed since the war. Any figure longer than that is speculation.

I think it take place sometime a little after Fallout 3 or during the events of Fallout 3.

Todd also said that they had seeds for it while they were finishing F3. He even specifically mentions the Commonwealth. This is in the most recent vids up on bethnet. When he says 2009, that's when official work began, most likely.

Anyway, still gotta go with Pete being asked directly if if were 200 years and saying it was 200 years.

Years have 12 months in them. F3 taking place 2/3 of the way through year means there are still 4 months left for F3 to play out and F4 to start. The base game for F3 can be done fairly quickly. The canon ending most likely wouldn't be more than 2 months after the start of the game. This us right at the 200 year anniversary of the great war, the second half of October.

Same year as F3
Taking place after F3
200 years after the bombs fell.

One last musing.
If it winds up that we emerge from the vault on the programmed/scheduled date, is it more likely to be 200 years exactly, or something more random, like 213 years?
Which of those makes more sense?

This. Combined with the fact that Bethesda has historically only wanted to push the timeline forward - they actually told Obsidian they couldn't set New Vegas before Fallout 3 for this exact reason.

To me it seems more likely that Bethesda would be ambiguous about the 200 years line. At least compared to the idea of them going back on their "keep the timeline going forward" philosophy (why would they set their game before New Vegas after telling Obsidian to keep the timeline going forward?) and giving us a King Arthur reference in the Brotherhood of Steel that actually doesn't have anything to do with Arthur Maxson.

It's actually set in 1938; the protagonist and Codsworth were both sent back in time by the force of the nuclear explosions ripping through space-time. All of the destruction you see around Boston is because the Nazis have already taken over the Eastern seaboard of the US after quite difficult fighting in the early days of WWII.

Prince said 1999

Just because Codsworth says "200 years" doesn't mean exactly 200 years. That can very well mean a rough estimate of 200 years, a few years over 200 can actually be rounded down to 200. It's more fluent to say a rounded figure in a conversation than a exact one.

Until we see gameplay that gives us exact ingame date, everything regarding this is speculation.

The robot in Vault 112 says you're "202.3 years" late... (that vault was sealed a couple years before the Great War).

And where are all the references to Boston in FO3?

Either 2283 or 2285, with a start date of June 21st.

In one of the side quest in Rivet City. Mr Zimmerman explains how Boston is a terrible place unless you part of MIT.

The game will definitely take place after FO3, but as others above have explained, this means it could still potentially take place in the year 2277. As FO:NV was made by Obsidian, and the events depicted in that game will likely have no bearing on events on the east coast, I think BGS might bend their own "timeline only moves forward" rule a little if need be.

If the Brotherhhod faction in Boston is indeed the CWBoS, then it makes sense for the game to be taking place some years after FO3, especially if Arthur Maxson is to play a part, as he would need to be an advlt (he's only 10 in FO3, if I remember rightly). However, Arthurian legend is often connected to the BoS, so the airship being named "Prydwen" does not necessarily indicate Arthur Maxsons' presence. There has been much debate on exactly which BoS group we are seeing; some say CWBoS, while others point to the Mid-Western Bos, but there's actually nothing to stop BGS creating an entirely new BoS group not previously mentioned if they so wished.

I'm going to go with the year being 2280, for no better reason than 203 years being a reference to H.G. Wells' story "The Sleeper Awakes".

What i find funny is that i recall the older versions of pipboys used in FO3 and NV had the date and time stamp somewhere on the main screen of the pipboy menu. Now it is suspiciously avoid of a date and time stamp. This makes the adamant voiced "200 years" that both Pete and Todd have been throwing around seem rather less surten to me. I do still believe it will not take place after New Vegas, but rather somewhere between NV and FO3. This would alow them to use small elements of FO3's ending and its implication, while alowing it to stay vague since it happened not to long ago, thereby not needing to set a hard cannon like they would have too if enought time had passed for the events to be know across that side of the wasteland.

If too much time has passes since FO3, then i expect it to impact far more of the world then if only 3 months have passed.

Any particular reason? I do find this much more likely than the "200 years EXACTLY" crowd.

Most of my theory is explained in http://www.gamesas.com/topic/1528530-revolution-216 thread.

I have since discovered that Summer Solstice in the year 2285 will actually occur on June 20th at around 6.26pm Boston time, and not on June 21st as I first thought. In 2283 however, it will occur on June 21st (at around 6.54am), and so it's possible that this could be the year that the game begins. 2283 is also exactly 500 years after the end of the revolutionary war.

Another determining factor is whether or not Arthur Maxson will be featured in gameplay (which is very likely). In 2285, he will be 18, but in 2283, he will only be 16.

I wanted to know what snack it was going to be.

i just hope for the year, that the game happen after Fallout 3 and no after Fallout NV, the time difference between NV and 3 is huge, and NV is to far away to have any real impact on Boston, while Dc isnt that far and Brotherhood have reasons to explore after making DC safe, so i hope is close to Fallout 3 like 10 - 15 year after 3

One little bit of info would be an easy indicator to prove or disprove the 200 exact years; how we wake up. If the generally accepted cryosleep situation ends up being real, it's unlikely we were like "oh let's wake up in.... idk 208 years?" It would have likely been 200. Now if we are woken before our 'end date' for cryo sleep it could have been anthing. We typed in 250 years and were woken up early.

Unless of course somebody broke us out of the vault...

That's..... why I said woken up early....

If you dont take NV into account, which many people here think beth does not take NV into account with anything, then technically speaking 2 months after fallout 3 is still moving forward. I happen to think this is the case. Todd and pete keep saying 200 years and NV would be considered a spin off, so im going to go with 2277.

I also dont believe that CWBoS has anything to do with the game, I think the only people qualified to build proper airships is MW and EC. There are already vertibirds in boston in the prewar gameplay so its only logical that the MW can get their hands on them.

The only thing we will be able to tell for certain is from the Quakecon gameplay footage of the BoS members in PA. The model of PA will tell us alot more than most think.