I mean the earlier they go Gold and start manufacturing the discs, the higher the possibility of a leak. They have a leak a week before release isn't as bad as if they go Gold around the 25th and have a leak 2 weeks before release. Morrowind went Gold 8 days before launch. NV was 17 days. I'm going with November 1st.
Not sure you realize this, but this is a worldwide release on 11-11-11. Morrowind and New Vegas were not. They have to ship to far more countries than just US and Canada for release on 11-11-11. In order to make a worldwide release like this, they HAVE to go gold as early as possible, especially for shipping units to Australia. With any worldwide release on the same day, the earlier they go gold the better.