If it were up to you, would you do Dawnguard without yet having talked to Jarl Balgruff? I'm just the right level, according to Dawnguard ( L10 ). But since I haven't advanced the main story, dragons won't be showing up but I won't be able to shout. So, Durneviir will be the first dragon I have to fight and without shouts and him with Dragon Combat Overhaul.