I think genre (fantasy vs sci-fi or post-apoc) is not all that relevant to how well Fallout 4 will do versus Skyrim. There is an ebb and flow to which genre is most popular at the moment, but quality content finds a market regardless.

I loved D&D and Conan as a kid, but I got sick of the whole fantasy thing as I grew up. Particularly well done movies like the LOTR series were still enjoyable, but in gaming, wizards and elves just didn't do it for me. I loved Fallout 3, but wasn't too interested in TES. I followed Skyrim's development out of interest in BGS--I wanted to get an idea how the engine was improving for the inevitable Fallout 4. I ended up buying Skyrim on a whim at release, and proceeded to lose a few hundred hours in it. I suspect that a lot of TES players came to Fallout in the same way.

With each new release, BGS does a great job of pulling in new fans while retaining their fan base who've become addicted to their style of open world game (regardless of genre). I'm confident that the trend of ever-more-successful games will continue with Fallout 4.

Saleswise, I think the interest is there, but Skyrim was released towards the end of the last console cycle after there had been like a kagillion consoles sold and everybody had one. With the new consoles still north of $400, I'm not sure Fallout 4 will have the potential customer base Skyrim had simply because many who bought Skyrim don't have a new box yet to play Fallout 4 on.

All things being equal, I'm sure Fallout 4 would do as well as Skyrim. But, I'm not sure how equal things really are when it comes to the number of possible customers out there then vs now.

Interesting point of view, I haven't thought about that.

Fallout 4 would be a good reason to get a new console for those who haven't yet. Plus Christmas is coming up... I have to think that anyone half-serious about games will be moving on the new gen sooner or later. Fallout 4 won't be one of those flash-in-the-pan games that's hot for two weeks then falls off the radar. People will be playing this one for a long time, just like Skyrim.

All I have to say Is....."Winter is coming"

I take all the garbage critic sites with a grain of salt. People need to just be there own critic on a game. Whether it will sell more then Skyrim? Who cares really? Does it really matter? And no it probably won't. Unless FO4 magically brings in a huge number of new fans I doubt it.

And btw...Anyone else notice the "MentalHealth.gov" hyperlink at the bottom? BGS what you trying to say?

Very true. Some crazy people like me even bought the game knowing they can't play on release I will have to wait until next spring to assembly a new computer able to run it, but I secured my pipboy edition and that makes me happy

As for the original question, I really thnk Fallout 4 will not beat Skyrim's sales, despite the enlarged fanbase during the last 4 years, mostly because fantasy with dragons and chunky heroes with weird horned helms and huge swords are simply more appealing in a cinematic, epic, cool, buybuybuy way.

More sales = larger modding community = better game.

So I hope so.

I don't know about that... Look at any list of the best selling video games. I'd say that, in general terms, games with guns far outsell games with swords.

no.

TES is much more popular, thanks to Oblivion on the consoles and especially the phenomenon that Skyrim was.

come on......you guys really think that F4 will sell over 20 million copies?

Skyrim sells are once in a life time so no.

Sales? Probably not. People aren't into ''never seen things'' such as the 50's (that sounds so silly).

Everyone likes Fantasy, because they think that everything works ''because magic'' and that, for example, Skyrim and Lord of the Rings are basically the same thing, so they don't need to go learn things here and there. Most of the people I know know Skyrim in one way or another.

Metacritic? Hell yeah. Everyone loves new Bethesda games. And the more they can do, the better they think it is.

We should be asking if fo4 will outsell fo3 and i think yesssss.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that it already has outsold Fallout 3 in pre-purchases.

Possible & Probable.

No idea how accurate, but according to "steamspy.com" New Vegas sold that many copies on Steam alone (3,972,719 give or take 52,812): http://steamspy.com/app/22380

F4 may or may not out sell Skyrim, but based on pre orders and pre release hype, I think either way Bethesda will be very happy with the sales.

Bethesda's secret weapon is mods being available for consoles.

Most console players only have a vague idea just how wonderful a modded Fallout or Skyrim game is.

You can fine tune the game to your own personal preferences and you double or triple the replay value.

And only 15% of Skyrim's sales were for PCs.

I think that Bethesda is perfectly situated to use mods for F4 to keep bringing in new console players.

Even if F4 falls short of Skyrim's initial sales, once they release the modding tools there will be a big pick up in both PC and console sales.

Edit - Sorry, it looks like that figure from VGChartz doesn't include digital sales.

The following site has made an estimation of PC vs console sales for Skyrim:

http://www.thegamersblog.com/understanding-the-numbers-pc-vs-console-sales-figures/

Xbox 360: 2.2 mil-lion
PlaySta-tion 3: 1.5 mil-lion
PC: 2 Million

That puts PC at over a 1/3 of all Skyrim sales.

That means that two thirds of Skyrim sales were done without the carrot of Skyrim modding community.

The 15% of The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim selling on PC is wrong.

Right now there is a total of 9.4+ million copies of the PC version of The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim sold. It sold 5 million copies on launch day? Or 2 months later. Anyways there were 5 million PC gamers playing it on Steam around late 2011 early 2012.

Yes, it will surpass Skyrim. Gunplay has a wider potential audience than fantasy does.

As an aside, I can't wait until the game is released. Not just to play, but so comparisons between FO and Skyrim stop.

It was quite a lot more than this.

The UK's largest video game retailer, GAME specifically stated they're confident Fallout 4 will surpass Skyrim in sales based on the number of pre-order sales in the weeks directly after E3. I think it is possible, I'd say Fallout 4 actually has a advantage being that any game that includes an FPS mechanic has the advantage over the less popular fantasy genre. I think a key reason why Skyrim did so well in terms of sales was because it reached viral levels of interest online, people who had never played a video game before or had only a passing interest in games were being bombarded with Skyrim based videos and memes online generating unprecedented levels of interest and potential sales. If Fallout 4 does again reach that same viral level then I'd say it's possible dare I say likely that Fallout 4 will outsell Skyrim.

Personally, I expect that Fallout 4 is going to break all kinds of sales records, not just exceed Skyrim. I'm thinking COD/GTA levels.

There is no way Fallout 4 will sell 54+ million copies not even 1 year later or 3 years later.

If I'm wrong though, I'm wrong, but I don't believe Fallout 4 will sell 54+ million copies at all.

I disagree Fallout has a huge following has guns and Bethesda is a loved developer.

I know many people who are not into the magic and fantasy genre who liked skyrim despite that fact because it was BGS.

But they love gun based games, this will sell huge, may not top skyrim but it can.

I certainly think there is potential especially if the COD crowd is ever either marketed to or people try and buy a game for their COD obsessed sibling/child/SO without really knowing it isn't COD at all.

probably Fallout 4 will sell the same or more of Skyrim, any game coming will do the same ES6 probably will sell more that Fallout 4 =P

But about the score, is a hard year. Fallout 4 will be competing with MGS, and all the [censored] reviews about that game.