» Sat May 28, 2011 5:08 am
I doubt it.
In fact, I doubt there will be a Bethseda in 4 years.
1. Bethseda has two sister studios, Viral and Zenimax online. I've yet to see anything regarded as wildly successfull on Viral's site, and ZO is making an MMO. MMO's are incredibly expensive to make, usually fail, and often take the company with them. So basically, 3 studios are living on Bethseda's revenue.
2. Bethseda shipped 4.7 million units. According to NPD, and some math, Bethseda's barely sold half of that by January. Generally speaking, not selling your initial shipment by the time you're out of your major sales window is regarded as bad. Especially when you spent the marketing budget usually reserved for movies.
So basically, the most likely scenario at this point is this.
Zenimax feels the pinch from ZO and Viral burning through cash, starts to run low prior to TES V's release which will likely be 2010. Pushes Bethseda to release early, which leads to a lower quality product, which leads to lower sales, which continues the circle.
It's just math and history. NPD's numbers + the precedent set by other studios like 3do.
You can have all the awards in the world, but if your units sit on shelves, it doesn't matter.