They just gonna walk through deadly, hazardous, radiated wasteland, for some possibly across the entire USA from coast to coast.... I would say chance of survival pretty slim.
Then how did they get from Navarro to DC?
One of the goals in warfare is to destroy communications. Satellites, just like cities, can be targeted for destruction. The only communications that we know is operational is short to mid range communication. Taking out communications is just as important a strategic military strategy as anything else. There could be countless reasons why communication can be disabled.
Then how did the Enclave communicate with Bradley-Hercules in Broken Steel, or how did Eden, who was a Presidential Advisor contact the President, besides PoseidoNet still works, even pre-war facilities like a Poseidon Nuclear Powerstation which wasn't even under Enclave control could be used to communicate with he Oil Rig.
Also, if communication so great, they would know there absolutely no reason to send Ed-E to Navarro. Or is there? Communications or not, why bother? Oil rig gone, they have to assume whoever remained got wiped out or dismantled. Unless there something we do not know.
I put this down to maybe Navarro' loss being heavily classified for moral after all, if they felt the need to classify DEATHS before even the Oil Rig was gone (early Power Amour testing in 2220's) then lord only knows how important moral is now.
On Ed-E log 1, voice says if this picked up by ONE of our enclave OUTPOSTS (plural) in Chicago.. sounds like more than 5 guys sitting in a cave eating cram to me, and that there is more than 1 outpost there.
Actaully I like that, I never noticed the pluralisation before... I never thought that the Chicago outpost was just five guys, I just thought it was a bunker without a population great enough to sustain itself. Plural... I like that, well spotted old sport.
Yes, I believe there would be secrets. True nature of Eden to the DC forces was a secret. That is the nature of the military and government, especially one like the enclave. Propoganda, secrets, covert ops, lies, deception, are all a part of it. Nobody knows what the enclave did or who they came across on their journey east.
Yeah the discussion about the events between Navarro and DC, not to mention Eden have been talked discussed so many times, this is more Andronicus's area of expertise on the Enclave, I tend to stick more to justifications for their actions (not to say that I won't have this discussion, *sigh* if pressed, I do consider myself an authority on the Enclave after all). Reasons about just how the [censored] anyone could not know he was a computer for 30 years...
Finally, yes, the oil rig could have been one of many plans. You don't gamble on one or two things for victory. You don't leave safety of your fortified bunked to try and trek across the wasteland, and prolly die, when you are safe in it. If you safe from the nuclear fallout, you safe from the virus, and if oil rig plan works, eventually they can bring the vaccine to you, or if communication so awesome, send the info on how to manufacture it yourself.
Well what if the facilities to manufacture are poorer there? The Enclave did manufacture so much on the Oil Rig, the Enclave trekked all the way across to DC after a titanic defeat because of "orders", why not presumably a much shorter distance to the Oil Rig. The Enclave surely run the risk of a genetic bottleneck by their very nature, it makes sense to me to have all hands on deck; don't forget that the Enclave are rather arogant, when it comes to the Rig they think that they have crossed their T's and dotted their I's by disabling the tanker and the natural defenses. Indeed the got destroyed because the Chosen One exploited a failure in the Rig's power station, not becuase they were bested militarily.
I'm not saying this is all fact. I'm saying it possible, because it dumb to gather in one place. It dumb to risk survival on one thing. It dumb to travel across the wasteland if you are safe, it even dumber to make same mistake twice. And it is fact enclave was in other place before the year you said because it specifically states they spread out GLOBALLY before the bombs, so they were in other places. You just think they all came running to the oil rig for the big win, and I don't think they would, nor would it be possible for all of them to even know what going on.
House predicted that there would be a nuclear war 15 years before hand and put his personal plans into action, RobCo eventually bought REPCONN which designed the Enclave's Plasma Rifle's especially for the pre-war Enclave, just saying if House sould be so damn accurate then surely the Enclave would be. A lot of this can be debated, I say that the Oil Rig with it's size, landing pads, manufacturing facilities and the equipment that must be aboard must have been purpose built by the Enclave, for the Enclave in the event of the war. I just think that the pre-war Enclave might have been a little more organised and eventually all made their way home to the Rig which had been planned so extensively, the Enclave weren't chumps.