Baring major reforms the NCR could last about 10 years if they don't handle the famine situation, though I imagine they would. In any case at min. because of the institutions backed by written laws they're stronger than the Legion and it's random succedion problems.

And you base this assumption on what country?

Ironically, the biggest impediment to NCR's growth will probably be water. California is a natural desert. Unless the NCR can figure out a way to get enough water to support its growing population, they'll have to start some kind of program to get people to move to states that have water.

Famine wouldn't end the NCR. Famine hasn't ever ended a country. Look at Ireland, it underwent severe famine, and yet it's still around today. Some of the population dies off or leaves, and then there's enough food again. Or the government finds a way to produce more food.

EDIT: Of course, this would considerably weaken the NCR, and with a combination of outside forces, it might be able to bring it down, but by itself, no.

Until a patch upgraded the service rifle into a better weapon Legion patrols would routinely slaughter the NCR patrols. But because the NCR service rifle got an upgrade they win those fights now. Obsidian needs to update the legion side of things to put back the status quo that shipped with the game.

Here's what the legion has, intelligence.

They have a spy/saboteur at Camp McCarran passing on intel of NCR patrols and ploting to blow up the monorail. They have agents on the strip ready to bomb the embassy. And the presidents visit ends badly unless the Courier saves the day. We could probably bet the past five years have been filled with Legion sabotage of NCR operations. The Legion is winning because they out spy the NCR. Caesar's Legion may be smaller then the total population of the NCR but its almost entirely devouted to military conquest and expansion. I'm betting their army is much much bigger.

Chief Hanlon also agreed that the NCR has no lakes or aqufiers. The Head scientist of OSI east says the NCR will have famine within 10 years. A famine compounded with political troubles could very well bring the NCR down. Look at Somilia, a lack of proper institutions plus a bad geographic situation can turn out deadly.

I'm very confident the NCR will be around for a very long time.

While that's true, I still don't think it would bring down the whole country. Maybe the extremities of the country would break off, but the country itself would remain intact.

Plus, this is all just meaningless debate. The writers could script the Enclave bringing back some kind of satellite and use it to devastate and wipe out the NCR for all we know right now.

Interesting points.

Personally, I don't think they will. For starters, their aggressive expansion is not something they can keep up long term; the Mojave campaign took a considerable amount of effort to keep running and, even then, it was a fraction of what it could have been. Assuming they were to keep that going and expand into Utah or Arizona or Oregon, they'll only stretch themselves further until they're at a breaking point.

Secondly, political unrest. The NCR, like the Legion, were basically built around one person (Tandi) who spent the majority of the faction's lifetime in charge. Without them, it's just not the same, and there's hints throughout the game that Kimball isn't exactly well liked or respected. How long until a civil war erupts? Honestly, I couldn't imagine it being long, especially if the NCR lost Hoover Dam. And this isn't even taking into account their annexed territories; I doubt those people are exactly loyal towards the NCR and its heavy taxes.

I don't really think that the NCR was purposely built around Tandi. She started it, helped it prosper and grow, then she passed away. It worked best ( so far ) with Tandi at the head yes, but the NCR was never absolutely hers'.

Even with political unrest, people are not going to let NCR fall since the entire economy of the west depends on NCR. Without the Hub, all the caps become worthless. Even annexed territories will have too much caps and NCR cash to risk seceding.

They don't use caps in the NCR anymore they have there own currency.

Actually, a lot of people have switched back to caps because NCR money has depreciated in value due to inflation caused by funding the war.

Regardless, even if NCR doesn't use caps, the only reason why caps have any value is because the Hub backs it with water. The Hub is the biggest trading city in NCR. If NCR collapses, the Hub is at risk of collapse. If the Hub collapses, all caps become worthless.

In the Mojave they use caps, but its not clear about its usage back in the NCR. The government for example only pays its soldiers and quarry workers with NCR dollars. (something they complain about).


*sigh* Your confusing the past with the present. The Hub used to back caps back in Fallout 1 with water. When the NCR came to power they backed the NCR dollar with gold and caps became worthless. The Hub ceased backing currency at that time and the NCR government took over that responsibility. During the war against the brotherhood of steel the NCR gold reserve was destoryed so now the NCR dollar is backed by water.

Caps were originally valued as currency due to the dififculty in counterfeiting and limited numbers. The merchants of the wasteland can continue to back caps even if the NCR completely collapses which is why its value is higher.

If the Hub's not backing caps, why are they still valuable? Why is Mr. House willing to accept caps from the NCR if they're not backed by anything of real value?

Lets look at why did the Hubmerchants use bottlecaps to begin with.
Merchants supported bottle caps because the technology to manufacture them and paint their surfaces had been lost in the Great War, which limited any counterfeiting efforts. Secondly, there is a limited number of bottle caps, which preserved their value against inflation to some degree.
The reasons the Hub merchants supported bottlecaps haven't evaporated, with a lack of faith in the NCR dollar they revive and older form of currency. The bottlecaps are valuable because the merchants deem it so. The Crimison Caravan backs caps as a currency, Alice even sends you out to remove a bottlecap press as its a threat to the currency. If one major trading company starts accepting caps the others have to follow suite. Even if the Hub and the NCR collapses the wealthy trading companys could remain. And without a government merchants would turn to caps again anyway as it worked for decades until the NCR established its self.

House himself could support Bottlecaps as a currency due to the economic power the Strip offers and he could back it not only by water from Lake Mead or electricity from Hooverdam.

An economy which is also completely unsustainable.

Except it's not enough for the merchants to deem caps valuable. It's not enough that the merchants back caps with something of real value. People have to be confident that the merchants can keep their promise. They have to believe that the merchant won't just die or collapse and render their caps worthless. That means the merchants who back the caps have to have guaranteed stability or at least the illusion of guaranteed stability. If people thought that the Hub could collapse at any moment, they're not going to be willing to trade their food, supplies, or services for caps.

Even if the big trading companies make it through the collapse of the NCR, they won't be as stable as they once were. They'll be more vulnerable to raiders and mutants. They won't have the reach of the NCR and there comes the potential for rival currencies. There's also the fact that the fall of the NCR would jeopardize people's confidence in caps. They just saw the biggest government in the wasteland collapse and all their money has become useless paper. They'll be far less willing to accept money as medium of trade after something like that.

Built was the wrong word, but Tandi shaped it to the point that it might as well have been built around her. Kimball and the others have been sending the NCR downhill since then.

Not really. If the NCR were to collapse the annexed cities would likely just revert to what they were pre-NCR. I mean, the Hub won't stop being a merchant hub just because they're not waving an NCR flag.

My two cents: NCR has a chance of lasting long-term, but they need to learn how to sustain.

Either they need to stop aggressive expansion, or they need to slow the F down, 'cause they can't keep going the way they are.

They're like butter over too much bread.

If they were to stop now, the territory they now own would most likely stay under their controll.

The first paper money was store credit issued by merchants which could be redeemed for goods. Then you had entire circles of merchants who'd agree to honor each other stores money. This evolved into paper money. It is enough the merchants will back caps with something of real value. Where was the stability in Fallout 1? nowhere the merchant caravans hired armed escorts. Caps was a medium of currency long before the NCR. If NCR territories started declaring independence or the whole government collapsed back into independent city states.. The merchants would need to keep trading an they'd need a currency so they'd back caps again. The reasons the hub backed caps as a currency haven't changed, the collapse of the NCR would simply be more incentive to use them as money.